Global Intifada

“A revolution is likely to occur only when a society simultaneously experiences three kinds of difficulties:

1. A state financial crisis, brought on by a growing imbalance between the revenues a government can securely raise and the obligations and tasks it faces.
2. Severe elite divisions, including both alienation from the state and intra-elite conflicts, brought on by increasing insecurity and competition for elite positions
3. High potential for mobilizing popular groups, brought on by rising grievances (e.g., regarding high rents or low wages) and social patterns that assist or predispose popular groups to action (e.g. large numbers of youth in the population, increasingly autonomous rural villages, growing concentrations of workers in weakly administered cities.

The conjuncture of these three conditions generally produces a fourth difficulty: an increase in the salience of heterodox cultural and religious ideas; heterodox groups then provide both leadership and an organizational focus for opposition to the state.”

(p xxiii - xxiv of “Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World” by Jack Goldstone)

Based on this model, is it plausible to believe that state collapse, rebellion, revolution, civil war, or foreign wars will happen in the following Muslim countries: Pakistan, Egypt, Palestine, Turkey, Iran, and possibly Nigeria.

Any other states?

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